OBJECTIVES: A reinvestigation of the relationship between the decline of tuberculosis and improvement in social conditions in England and Wales during Victorian times. DESIGN: A retrospective study using data published in the annual reports of the Registrar General from 1853 to 1910. MEASURES ASSESSED: The diseases studied, in addition to tuberculosis were dysentery and cholera, including their total and infant mortality. Social conditions were evaluated from earnings and population density per house. RESULTS: Tuberculosis mortality declined at an annual average rate of 1.71% (95% confidence interval [Cl] 0.77-2.63), whereas total mortality, infant mortality and mortality from cholera and dysentery and house population density showed no statistically significant decline over the same period. Real earnings increased by 1.05% (95% CI 0.29-1.81). CONCLUSION: Improving social conditions do not provide the total explanation for the decline in tuberculosis during Victorian times. Other factors, principally natural selection, probably played a role. Part of the current increase in tuberculosis may be caused by effective drug therapy eliminating natural selection.
OBJECTIVES: A reinvestigation of the relationship between the decline of tuberculosis and improvement in social conditions in England and Wales during Victorian times. DESIGN: A retrospective study using data published in the annual reports of the Registrar General from 1853 to 1910. MEASURES ASSESSED: The diseases studied, in addition to tuberculosis were dysentery and cholera, including their total and infant mortality. Social conditions were evaluated from earnings and population density per house. RESULTS:Tuberculosis mortality declined at an annual average rate of 1.71% (95% confidence interval [Cl] 0.77-2.63), whereas total mortality, infant mortality and mortality from cholera and dysentery and house population density showed no statistically significant decline over the same period. Real earnings increased by 1.05% (95% CI 0.29-1.81). CONCLUSION: Improving social conditions do not provide the total explanation for the decline in tuberculosis during Victorian times. Other factors, principally natural selection, probably played a role. Part of the current increase in tuberculosis may be caused by effective drug therapy eliminating natural selection.
Authors: Timothy S C Hinks; Nimu Varsani; David T Godsiff; Thomas C Bull; Katherine L Nash; Lisa McLuckie; Catherine Maule; Tessa Flower; Anthony Warley Journal: BMC Infect Dis Date: 2012-12-06 Impact factor: 3.090