Risk model for severe anemia requiring red blood cell transfusion after cytotoxic conventional chemotherapy regimens. The Elypse 1 Study Group.

PURPOSE: Cancer patients frequently experience anemia as a consequence of myelosuppressive therapy or bone marrow invasion. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A risk model for chemotherapy-induced severe anemia requiring RBC transfusions (SARRT) within 31 days after the administration of chemotherapy was delineated in the cohort of cancer patients treated with chemotherapy in the Department of Medicine of Centre Léon Bérard in 1996 (CLB-1996). The risk model was tested on a series of 797 patients treated in 1997 (CLB-1997) and on 295 patients included in a multicenter prospective series (ELYPSE 1).
RESULTS: One hundred seven of the 1,051 patients of the CLB-1996 cohort (10%) experienced SARRT. In univariate analysis, only female sex, performance status greater than 1, hemoglobin level less than 12 g/dL before chemotherapy on day 1 (d1), and d1 lymphocyte count < or = 700/microL significantly correlated with the risk of SARRT. Using logistic regression, d1 hemoglobin level less than 12 g/dL (odds ratio [OR] = 14.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7 to 30), performance status greater than 1 (OR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.5), and d1 lymphocyte count < or = 700/microL (OR = 1.7; 95% CI, 1. 1 to 2.6) were identified as independent risk factors for SARRT. These three factors were given arbitrary risk coefficients of 3, 1, and 1 respectively, and a risk score for each individual patient was obtained by adding the coefficients. The calculated probability of RBC transfusions was 30% for patients with a score > or = 4, and 11%, 4%, and 1% in patients with a score of 2 or 3, 1, and 0 respectively. This model was then tested and validated in the CLB-1997 and ELYPSE 1 series.
CONCLUSION: This risk index could be useful to identify patients at high risk for chemotherapy-induced SARRT who might be appropriate candidates for prophylactic erythropoietin treatment.