A possible 20th-century slowdown of southern ocean deep water formation

Chlorofluorocarbon-11 inventories for the deep Southern Ocean appear to confirm physical oceanographic and geochemical studies in the Southern Ocean, which suggest that no more than 5 x 10(6) cubic meters per second of ventilated deep water is currently being produced. This result conflicts with conclusions based on the distributions of the carbon-14/carbon ratio and a quasi-conservative property, PO(4)(*), in the deep sea, which seem to require an average of about 15 x 10(6) cubic meters per second of Southern Ocean deep ventilation over about the past 800 years. A major reduction in Southern Ocean deep water production during the 20th century (from high rates during the Little Ice Age) may explain this apparent discordance. If this is true, a seesawing of deep water production between the northern Atlantic and Southern oceans may lie at the heart of the 1500-year ice-rafting cycle.