Spatial and temporal patterns of imported malaria cases and local transmission in Trinidad.

Over a 30-year period (1968-1997) 213 malaria cases in Trinidad were investigated by the Trinidad and Tobago Ministry of Health. Using a global positional system and a geographic information system, we mapped the precise location of all reported malaria cases, and associated them with breeding habitats of anopheline vectors. The majority of the cases (138, 63%) were individual imported cases around the big port cities. Plasmodium falciparum was the most common parasite, and Africa the most common source of imported cases. Two clusters of cases occurred: an introduced P. vivax outbreak associated with Anopheles aquasalis in 1990-1991, and an autochtonous focus of P. malariae associated with An. bellator and An. homunculus in 1994-1995. Application of a space-time statistic showed a significant clustering of P. malariae cases, and, to a lesser extent of P. vivax cases, but not of P. falciparum cases. Based on potential for occurrence of local transmission, we are developing risk maps to determine surveillance priorities, outbreak potential, and necessary degree and spatial range of control activities following case detections.