Theileriosis control modelling (experiences from Southern Province, Zambia).

Effects of different tick-borne disease control strategies on cattle productivity are simulated based on a 30-year herd projection, calculated by a modified Markov Chain model. Input data can be grouped in technical, economic and epidemiological parameters. The output is a set of economic parameters such as benefit/cost ratio (BCR), net present value (NPV) of the profit, internal rate of return (IRR), total economic cost (TEC) as well as graphs showing animal production over time. Shadow prices are obtained for input and output in kind. Throughout the calculations a distinction is made between transactions in cash and transactions in kind. A case study was run for Southern Province, Zambia, to illustrate the model. Either vector control or treatment, or a combination of these, controls theileriosis at farm level after natural infection. Preventive immunization against the parasite is also possible. Although the calculations are based on a mixture of data obtained from literature, field experience, expert opinion and assumptions, the importance of theileriosis control is clearly indicated. Immunization gives better economic results than chemotherapy. Vector control can only be used as a last resort.