Prediction of treatment outcomes: lifetime depression versus the continuum of care.

We sought to determine the impact of a lifetime diagnosis of major depression on addiction treatment outcome. Structured interviews were conducted upon admission, and consecutive structured interviews were conducted prospectively for treatment outcome at 6 and 12 month follow-up periods. A multisite evaluation study of patients undergoing addiction treatment for alcohol and drug dependence was conducted in private outpatient facilities. Two thousand twenty-nine subjects from 33 independent programs were enrolled in a national registry for addiction treatment outcomes. The patients received abstinence-based addiction treatment with referral to a 12-step recovery program, often Alcoholics Anonymous, and continuing care in the treatment programs. The outcome areas measured were treatment completion, posttreatment substance use, exposure to psychosocial relapse risk factors, involvement with continuing care (formal aftercare and peer support groups), and posttreatment vocational functioning, health care utilization, and legal involvement. The prevalence rate of depressive symptoms over at least a 2-week period (major depression) in our sample was 28%. Multivariate analysis with stepwise multiple regression indicated that the most powerful predictors (relatively) of posttreatment alcohol/drug use were peer support group attendance and program continuing care involvement. Lifetime depression by itself and in interaction with each of these factors accounted for less than 2% of the variance in outcome. Logistic regression yielded similar results in the prediction of abstinence versus relapse. Posttreatment more than pretreatment factors appear to be more decisive in predicting risk for relapse.