Problem drinking from young adulthood to adulthood: patterns, predictors and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Many young adults engage in heavy or problem drinking, but it is unclear who will continue problem drinking into adulthood. This study followed a general population sample in order to study patterns of problem drinking over time, to identify differences among drinking groups, to test a model differentiating youth-limited from developmentally-persistent problem drinkers, and to examine adult outcomes.
METHOD: Data were from the Health and Human Development Project; subjects (N = 1,073) were in three age cohorts (age 18-25; age 21-28; age 24-31). Based on use and consequences data from two assessment intervals, cluster analyses were performed.
RESULTS: Cluster analyses yielded four drinking groups: youth-limited problem drinkers, stable moderate drinkers, stable low drinkers and developmentally-persistent problem drinkers. Rates of youth-limited problem drinking peaked in the middle cohort and rates of developmentally-persistent problem drinking decreased in the oldest cohort. Discriminant analysis revealed that developmentally-persistent problem drinkers in each age cohort are more likely to be male, to show high disinhibition, and to experience a high level of problem behaviors. Youth-limited problem drinkers were similar to developmentally-persistent problem drinkers on many young adult characteristics and adult outcomes. Developmentally-persistent problem drinkers in each age cohort continued to show higher levels of problem behaviors in adulthood than youth-limited problem drinkers.
CONCLUSIONS: Most young adults show continuity of drinking patterns. Although developmentally-persistent problem drinkers did not differ from youth-limited problem drinkers in adopting adult roles, their continued experience of many problem behaviors suggests that they fail to adopt the role of greater conventionality in adulthood.