OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to project the population-wide effect of full implementation of the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) II guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP). BACKGROUND: The ATP II has proposed guidelines for cholesterol reduction, but the long-term epidemiologic influence of its components has not been fully examined. METHODS: We used a calibrated, validated simulation of the U.S. population, aged 35 to 84 years to estimate the potential for the NCEP guidelines, under varying assumptions, to reduce coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality and overall mortality from the years 2000 to 2020. RESULTS: Primary prevention would yield only about half of the benefits of secondary prevention despite requiring nearly twice as many person-years of treatment. The projected increase in quality-adjusted years of life per year of treatment for secondary prevention was 3- to 12-fold higher than for primary prevention. To yield population-wide epidemiologic benefits equivalent to NCEP recommendations for secondary prevention, primary prevention would require a nearly sixfold increase in the number of persons treated compared with NCEP recommendations. All benefits of universal success of the NCEP primary prevention "screen and treat" guidelines could be achieved by a 11 mg/dl (8%) population-wide reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels among persons without preexisting coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: The NCEP guidelines for targeted primary prevention can be a useful component of a rational public health strategy, but only as a complement to the more appealing strategies of secondary prevention and "across-the-board" programs to lower all cholesterol levels.
OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to project the population-wide effect of full implementation of the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) II guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP). BACKGROUND: The ATP II has proposed guidelines for cholesterol reduction, but the long-term epidemiologic influence of its components has not been fully examined. METHODS: We used a calibrated, validated simulation of the U.S. population, aged 35 to 84 years to estimate the potential for the NCEP guidelines, under varying assumptions, to reduce coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality and overall mortality from the years 2000 to 2020. RESULTS: Primary prevention would yield only about half of the benefits of secondary prevention despite requiring nearly twice as many person-years of treatment. The projected increase in quality-adjusted years of life per year of treatment for secondary prevention was 3- to 12-fold higher than for primary prevention. To yield population-wide epidemiologic benefits equivalent to NCEP recommendations for secondary prevention, primary prevention would require a nearly sixfold increase in the number of persons treated compared with NCEP recommendations. All benefits of universal success of the NCEP primary prevention "screen and treat" guidelines could be achieved by a 11 mg/dl (8%) population-wide reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels among persons without preexisting coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: The NCEP guidelines for targeted primary prevention can be a useful component of a rational public health strategy, but only as a complement to the more appealing strategies of secondary prevention and "across-the-board" programs to lower all cholesterol levels.