Cross-validation of prognostic scores in myelodysplastic syndromes on 386 patients from a single institution confirms importance of cytogenetics.

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) different prognostic risk analysis systems based on clinical and morphological data are used for predicting survival. Data on diagnostic and prognostic relevance of karyotype aberrations have prompted the development of scores including cytogenetics. The aim of this study was to assess and compare the explanatory power of different scoring systems and to assess the additional explanatory power of cytogenetics by evaluating the clinical and laboratory data of MDS patients from a single institution. Data of 386 MDS patients was available, with cytogenetic analysis at time of diagnosis in 256. Clinical/morphological scores: Bournemouth, modified Bournemouth and Düsseldorf; and scores including cytogenetics: Lausanne-Bournemouth, Lille and the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), were calculated and their predictive power was compared for both overall survival and preleukaemic duration. Each of the scores had significant correlation on both endpoints. Calculating the prognostic value of different cytogenetic aberrations we found that differentiating between evidence for no aberration, single aberrations excluding chromosomes 7 and 8, aberrations on chromosomes 5, 7 or 8 and complex aberrations was important. These data were incorporated in a 'prognostic index cytogenetics' (pi score). Cytogenetic scores significantly improved the prognostic value of the best clinical/morphological score in regard to both overall survival and preleukaemic duration. In conclusion, our data further stress the importance of cytogenetics for predicting prognosis in MDS.