What predicts change in marital interaction over time? A study of alternative models.

This is a report on what predicts the deterioration of affective marital interaction over a 4-year period. Four models were compared for their ability to predict Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction (a set of reliable predictors of marital dissolution). These four models were: (1) baseline physiology at Time-1; (2) interaction physiology at Time-1; (3) a balance model based on the ratio of positivity to negativity at Time-1; and, (4) cognitions about the relationship operationalized from our coding of the Oral History Interview. All four models predicted Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction. All four models were also able to predict change, operationalized as predicting Time-2 interaction, controlling for Time-1 interaction, that is, using a covariance regression analysis. The most powerful model in predicting change was the balance ratio model.