Prediction of atrial fibrillation recurrence after cardioversion by P wave signal-averaged electrocardiography.

The purpose of this report was to determine prospectively whether P wave signal-averaged electrocardiography (ECG) is useful for the prediction of recurrences of atrial fibrillation after cardioversion. The P wave signal-averaged ECG was recorded in 73 patients after successful cardioversion. Duration of the filtered P wave and the root mean square voltages for the last 20 ms of the P wave were calculated. In addition to signal-averaged ECG P wave analysis, all patients were evaluated by echocardiography. During 6 months follow-up period recurrence of atrial fibrillation was observed in 31 (42.5%) patients and in 42 (57.5%) patients sinus rhythm was maintained. There was no difference in gender, age, presence of organic heart disease, left atrial diameter, left ventricular ejection fraction, use of antiarrhythmic drug, and duration of atrial fibrillation (P>0.05). The filtered P-wave duration was longer and the root mean square voltages for the last 20 ms of the P wave was lower in patients with recurrence of atrial fibrillation than in patients who maintained sinus rhythm (138.3+/-12.5 ms vs. 112.4+/-11.8 ms, P = 0.001; 1.9+/-0.7 microV vs. 2.5+/-0.6 microV, P = 0.001). A filtered P-wave duration > or =128 ms associated with a root mean square voltage for the last 20 ms of the P wave < or =2.1 microV had a sensitivity of 70% and specificity of 76% for the detection of patients with recurrence of atrial fibrillation after successful cardioversion of atrial fibrillation. We found that the likelihood of recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cardioversion was increased 4.31-fold (95% confidence interval 2.08-9.83) if these parameters were used. These results suggest that P wave signal-averaged ECG could be useful to identify patients at risk for recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cardioversion.