The effects of oviposition aggregation on the incidence of sheep blowfly strike.

The distribution of a parasite population within its natural host population can have a significant influence on the dynamics of both the host and parasite populations. The majority of parasite species are typically distributed in an aggregated manner within the host population, leaving most hosts lightly infected and a few hosts supporting very large parasite burdens. This paper presents a consideration of the effects of aggregation on the incidence of ovine cutaneous myiasis caused by the sheep blowfly, Lucilia sericata (Meigen). Using simulation analysis, the mechanisms causing larval aggregation are included in the model, allowing the consequences for control to be investigated. By explicitly incorporating host susceptibility, it becomes apparent that early in the season, strategies targeting the blowfly population may prove more effective in suppressing strike levels, whereas later in the season, treatment of the sheep population may be more beneficial. The analysis also shows that the greater the degree of aggregation, the fewer sheep that become struck and, hence, suggests that increasing the heterogeneity in susceptibility amongst a flock of sheep restricts strikes to relatively few sheep. Providing the highly-susceptible sheep could be identified, concentrating strikes on a low number of sheep would allow fewer sheep to be treated, leading to a more efficient means of controlling the blowfly population and suppressing strike.