Prediction of thoracic aortic aneurysm expansion: validation of formulae describing growth.

BACKGROUND: The expansion rate of thoracic aortic aneurysms may be an important and clinically relevant index of the risk of rupture. The aims of this study were to assess the validity of three published exponential equations that predict expansion rate in a separate sample population, and to calculate an expansion rate formula for this cohort of patients.
METHODS: We studied 88 consecutive patients undergoing serial computed tomographic or magnetic resonance imaging scanning to monitor thoracic aortic aneurysm progression. In interval scans of at least 6 months, we measured minimum coronal aortic diameter at seven set levels and maximal diameter, yielding 780 segment-intervals.
RESULTS: The linear expansion rate (mean 2.6 mm/year) increased with incremental aortic diameter (aortic diameter < 40 mm: 2.0; 40-49 mm: 2.3; 50-59 mm: 3.6; > or = 60 mm: 5.6 mm/year; p < 0.01). Regression analysis showed close correlation between predicted and sample data, but there were significant differences between observed and expected measurements. The Yale formula underestimated growth by 0.8 mm, while Mt. Sinai and Osaka formulae overestimated actual change by 1.5 and 0.2 mm, respectively. The expansion rate derived from our population was: last diameter = initial diameter x e(0.00367 x time) (r = 0.617).
CONCLUSIONS: Although formulae derived from one thoracic aortic aneurysm sample population may not extrapolate exactly to others, there is close concordance of results for patient populations in three different continents.