Unexplained increases in cancer incidence in the United States from 1975 to 1994: possible sentinel health indicators?

To search for unexplained patterns in cancer incidence, we analyzed data from 1975 to 1994 that represent approximately 10% of the population of the United States. Our analysis focused on long-term time trends in incidence and on deviations from those trends attributable to birth cohorts or to calendar periods. On average, cancer incidence rose 0.8% annually in white women and 1.8% in white men. After removing several cancers related to smoking and increased screening, average annual increases fell to 0.1% in white women but persisted at 1.7% in white men. In particular, yearly increases in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma averaged 2.4% in white women and 4.7% in white men. Among men, incidence changes attributable to cohorts grew progressively larger from one cohort to the next. Cancer incidence patterns among black men and women were similar to those among whites despite smaller population sizes. Unexplained patterns of cancer incidence may signal changes in underlying risk factors and highlight the continuing need for research on cancer etiology and prevention.