Spatial diffusion of raccoon rabies in Pennsylvania, USA.

Identification of the geographic pattern of diffusion of a wildlife disease could lead to information regarding its control. The objective of this study was to model raccoon-rabies diffusion in Pennsylvania to identify geographic constraints on the diffusion pattern for potential use in bait-vaccination strategies. A trend-surface analysis (TSA) was used as a spatial filter for month to first report by county location. A cubic polynomial model was fitted (R2 = 0.80). Velocity vectors were calculated from the partial derivatives of the model and mapped to demonstrate the instantaneous speed of diffusion at each location. A main corridor of diffusion through the ridge and valley section of the state was evident early in the outbreak. Once the disease reached the northern counties, the disease moved west toward Ohio. I believe that TSA was useful in identifying the pattern of raccoon-rabies diffusion across the stage from the inherent noise of disease-reporting data.