Applying management science in developing countries: ABC analysis to plan public drug procurement.

Despite the vital role of pharmaceuticals in the prevention and treatment of major causes of death and disability in the developing world, high costs and frequent shortages remain chronic problems for drug supply programs. Yet, management techniques developed to optimize the use of scarce resources have had limited application in the settings of greatest need. An important determinant of the cost and supply of drugs is the procurement pattern. This study reviews procurement patterns in selected public supply programs and, using management science techniques, compares alternative procurement patterns in terms of inventory costs and shortages. Using drug cost and quantity estimates from two countries, a simulated ABC analysis was performed. This analysis showed drug inventories to be typical of industrial inventories: Over 80% of the consumption in dollars was accounted for by less than 20% of the drugs. Procurement patterns with more frequent purchasing or delivery of high usage drugs could reduce average inventories 20-50% over the commonly observed annual purchasing pattern. Sensitivity analysis of the results confirmed that variability in the delivery time and consumption pattern has a significant impact on the efficiency and economy of a procurement system. Closer supplier monitoring and better forecasting should reduce this variability.