Conceptual issues in assessing the economic effects of the HIV epidemic.

Estimating the economic effects of the HIV epidemic presents some remarkably difficult challenges. Forecasting the number of cases is complicated by virological and statistical uncertainties and by the peculiar demographics of its victims. The effects of prevention strategies are unclear while rapidly changing approaches to treatment make forecasting the costs of care hazardous. Use of the human capital model for assessing social costs (foregone national product) is hampered by lack of data on the earnings and consumption of people infected with HIV. Policy changes are likely and will significantly affect the cost burden and its distribution across payers.