GMENAC report on U.S. physician manpower policies: recommendations and reactions.

After four years of study in the United States, the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) concluded that an excess of approximately 70,000 physicians will exist in 1990. Faced with a future surplus, GMENAC recommends that U.S. medical schools decrease enrollment levels by 10 percent relative to the 1978-79 level and severely restrict entrance of foreign medical graduates. Flaws identified in the GMENAC approach relate to the use of the delphi technique, the future role of nonphysician providers, and a lack of reliable data. The GMENAC report may provide impetus for an abrupt shift from expansionism to reductionism in U.S. physician manpower policy. Long range physician manpower planning has erred in the past, necessitating periodic reevaluation of national policy. A continuing balance between supply and demand, although ideal, can probably never be attained. Thus small adjustments in total supply and specialty mix will always be necessary. The GMENAC report, which is the most comprehensive study of U.S. physician manpower to date, requires serious consideration in this context.