Identifying and measuring unintended outcomes.

Unintended outcomes of governmental actions have received little attention from evaluators. The argument made here is that outcome evaluations should routinely include efforts to identify and measure unintended outcomes. A systems perspective is presented which treats governmental actions as disequilibrating intrusions into reacting systems that produce an array of outcomes, only some of which are intended. Intended and unintended outcomes can be valued monetarily, in terms of human rights, or both; specifically, outcomes having monetary value alter both the level and distribution of income while outcomes with rights value alter the level and distribution of rights. More needs to be done on unintended outcomes. The systems approach offered here requires further elaboration. Design modification that increase the chances of identifying and measuring unanticipated outcomes are needed, especially for designs based on non-equivalent groups and time-series data. Instrumentation is needed for designs based on non-equivalent groups and time-series data. Instrumentation is needed that will more accurately and sensitively register unanticipated outcomes. In the meantime, evaluators should pay more attention to theoretical predictions, the experiences of those involved with programs similar to the ones being evaluated, intercultural differences, and to unintended outcomes that originate within government itself.