Need assessment of visiting nursing and rehabilitation services for noninstitutionalized elderly.

The author assessed the potential need for visiting nursing and rehabilitation services on a national level to estimate the volume of services expected for Japan's proposed new long-term care insurance. Baseline data were obtained from the national survey on freestanding visiting nursing stations conducted in September 1994, in which the population of 18,500 patients was professionally assessed by visiting nurses. The baseline data were then applied to the national sampling survey on households conducted in June 1992, in which respondents self-reported their activities of daily living (ADL) and health status. There are estimated to be 836,000 noninstitutionalized elderly with disability. Their need for visiting nursing and rehabilitation services is expressed as 48.26 million visits or 57.33 million working hours annually. Current service volume accounts for only 5% of the potential need, suggesting a sharp rise in demand once the new insurance is fully implemented.