Allocating resources for child welfare services: the effect of a caseload-driven approach.

The authors examine the unintended effects of a funding mechanism based on historical caseload statistics on the number of recorded investigated child abuse and neglect reports in seven California counties from January 1985 to December 1992. Forecasting results show that in five out of the seven counties, in the presence of an allocation methodology based solely on caseload statistics, the number of recorded investigated reports was approximately three to thirty-five percent higher than it would have been had only population measures been used. The findings suggest that a funding mechanism based solely on population measures may eliminate the unintended effects of increasing child welfare caseloads.