Lot quality assurance sampling for monitoring immunization programmes: cost-efficient or quick and dirty?

In recent years Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), a method derived from production-line industry, has been advocated as an efficient means to evaluate the coverage rates achieved by child immunization programmes. This paper examines the assumptions on which LQAS is based and the effect that these assumptions have on its utility as a management tool. It shows that the attractively low sample sizes used in LQAS are achieved at the expense of specificity unless unrealistic assumptions are made about the distribution of coverage rates amongst the immunization programmes to which the method is applied. Although it is a very sensitive test and its negative predictive value is probably high in most settings, its specificity and positive predictive value are likely to be low. The implications of these strengths and weaknesses with regard to management decision-making are discussed.