Prediction of life expectancy in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension. A retrospective nationwide survey from 1980-1990.

Primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH) is a progressive disease of unknown etiology usually followed by death within 5 years after diagnosis. Although heart-lung or lung transplantation is now offered to patients with advanced PPH, adequate criteria assessing an accurate prediction of life expectancy in PPH has been difficult to establish. The aims of this study were to identify the characteristic features associated with a poor prognosis in patients with PPH, and to attempt to establish an individual prognostic index that predicts with great accuracy survival or death of PPH after one year, thereby helping to define criteria for patient selection for transplantation. In 1991, a retrospective nation-wide survey on PPH was conducted in Japan, and the clinical and cardiorespiratory variables of 223 PPH cases (female; 144, male; 79) in the period from 1980-1990 were obtained. The mean pulmonary arterial pressure (PPA) was 57.5+/-17.2 mm Hg (mean+/-SD), and the overall median survival time was 32.5 months since the first diagnostic catheterization. The characteristic features of 61 patients who died within one year of catheterization (Nonsurvivors group) were compared to 141 patients who survived one year or more from the time of catheterization (Survivors group). Among several clinical and cardiorespiratory variables, heart rate, PPA, right atrial pressure (PRA), stroke volume index (SI), pulmonary vascular resistance, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) were significantly different between the two groups. As the independent factors, PPA, PRA, SI, and PaCO2 were selected for the multiple logistic analysis. Using a 0.7 probability cut-point to separate Nonsurvivors from Survivors, 84.6% of Nonsurvivors and Survivors could be correctly predicted from this logistic regression equation. Predictive equations like the present preliminary one can be used in the future to better assess life expectancy in patients with PPH in whom transplantation will be considered.