Using physical-chemistry-based substitution models in phylogenetic analyses of HIV-1 subtypes.

HIV-1 subtype phylogeny is investigated using a previously developed computational model of natural amino acid site substitutions. This model, based on Boltzmann statistics and Metropolis kinetics, involves an order of magnitude fewer adjustable parameters than traditional substitution matrices and deals more effectively with the issue of protein site heterogeneity. When optimized for sequences of HIV-1 envelope (env) proteins from a few specific subtypes, our model is more likely to describe the evolutionary record for other subtypes than are methods using a single substitution matrix, even a matrix optimized over the same data. Pairwise distances are calculated between various probabilistic ancestral subtype sequences, and a distance matrix approach is used to find the optimal phylogenetic tree. Our results indicate that the relationships between subtypes B, C, and D and those between subtypes A and H may be closer than previously thought.